Please visit our home site at www.TRILOBOATS.com.

Anke and I are building our next boat, and writing about it at ABargeInTheMaking.blogspot.com. Access to the net comes and goes, so I'll be writing in fits and spurts.

Please feel free to browse the archives, leave comments where you will and write, and I'll respond as I can.

Fair winds!

Dave and Anke
triloboats swirl gmail daughter com

Saturday, February 29, 2020

A Coronoviral Stitch in Time

Essalunga Supermarket, Milan, Italy
25 February 2020

Prudence prevents panic.

 

A Coronoviral Stitch in Time

Dear Friends,

You have likely been following the spread of COVID-19, which has to date evaded containment. Responsible agencies such as the World Health Organization and the US Centers for Disease Control are publicly urging citizens to prepare for a pandemic.

Standard, official containment measures include voluntary and enforced personal health measures, social distance (isolation) and travel restrictions. Quarantine is currently being enforced in Asia and Europe.

What this means is that, should we find ourselves in an area of contagion, we may be confined or confine ourselves to a limited area, and possibly our homes.

An immediate response to quarantine is panic buying of food and supplies, leading to local short-falls. In pandemic conditions, those short-falls may become widespread. Public utilities may not provide continuous service.

Panic is never helpful, but timely, prudent actions widen our options.

We urge that you strategically arrange essential water, food, supplies and medications ahead of crisis (as soon as possible), to sustain for an extended period without resupply.

A wait-and-see approach is likely to leave us unprepared for official, rapid containment responses in emerging conditions.

Last minute purchases - or at least the attempt amongst the crowd - are then the only remaining option. Goods may rapidly become wildly inflated or unavailable at any price. Panic and desperation are common consequences.

For how long is a good question. US Government sources recommend two weeks for pandemic conditions. COVID-19 quarantines in China handily exceeded this period. This does not appear to take into account possible to probable supply chain, economic or social disruptions which could extend a period of self-reliance.

We recommend three months as a working minimum, with a year preferred. Think of it as affordable, edible insurance.

Death from the virus is not likely for most of us. But reaction, over-reaction and inappropriate reactions by institutions, business and individuals may well create and extend a situation in which supplies are scarce or prices inflated. This is already the case in parts of Eurasia.

We suggest staple foods which don’t require refrigeration.

Whole grains and legumes, pastas, raw nuts, dried fruits, vegetables and spices, dry cheeses and salamis, and canned goods keep well, are (presently) inexpensive and can be used in everyday cooking (even if nothing significant happens).

Eggs keep surprisingly well (several months) if kept cool and turned once a week. Best if unwashed and never refrigerated, but even store-bought last. Consider oiling to block pores. Float and sniff test before adding to other food when getting on. Should NOT float nor smell ‘off’.

A mixture of 2 parts rice (grains) to 1 part lentils (legumes) provides a complete protein, carbohydrate food base which stores well. It can be ‘dressed up’ with spices and various ingredients for a wide range of meals.

We calculate total, dried starchy carbohydrates at ~8 pounds (~1 gallon) per person per month. That's three, four-gallon buckets per person per year.

Note: This amount of starchy carbs provides about 1/3 of the daily calories recommended for a sedentary male. Other calories would be supplied by supplemental foodstuffs, especially oils. If they are your only source of calories, consider tripling this amount.

Consider a camping stove and fuel in case deliveries are interrupted. Retained heat cookers conserve fuel. Wood / biomass burning stoves use fuel on hand.

We urge you to lay in supplies now, ahead of the arrival of COVID-19 in your area.

Wishing health and happiness to you and yourn,

Dave and Anke



*****

In the picture of the Milanese shelves leading this post, we see that only certain shelves have been denuded, while others remain stocked. This is not yet total panic buying.

Some runs have been selective and others less so. Runs are occurring across the globe; common in outbreak areas and increasingly in advance.

What's clear is that the window for measured preparation is closing.



7 comments:

  1. I think that was the wine section that was cleared out. Essentials always go first.

    Seriously, I agree completely! We got a bunch of basics a week ago. I hope we don't need them!!

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    1. Hi David,

      Yes... alcohol is an investment product in hard times. 8/

      I'm also hearing hand- and surface sanitizers, TP, paper towels and facemasks (which purchase the CDC discourages), are all going fast.

      Hope we don't need 'em, too, but looks like the horse has left the barn.

      Very glad to hear you're taking steps!

      Dave Z

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  2. Dont be afraid of "viruses and bacteria" friends, they never harmed anyone, and never will, latest article on Jon Rapaports blog "nomorefakenews" COV deaths .... explains the germ fraud in plain English, dont forget the comments, some are plain beautiful and talk directly to ones gut, happy sailing to you all.

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    Replies
    1. Hi Plentymoonshine,

      Mr. Rapaports argument is presented well, I'll grant, but I'm afraid I don't buy it.

      The scientific method is anti-conspiratorial via two fundamental requirements. Experiments must be repeatable, and all theory must be subject to peer review.

      The filtering effect he mentions is indeed a danger, but well known and the first critique of peer review.

      He doesn't mention it, but a third is the requirement of DISprovable prediction... that is, the theory must make predictions which are possible to be false.

      Germ theory (whose premises Rappoport challenges) has stood the test in a hard school. I don't see anything substantivly challenging in Rappoport's case.

      In general, he is one of those who spin tantalizing conjectures, but fails to support his case by the standards of investigative journalism. The few links he offers in support trail off into more unverified conjecture.

      More general yet, I'm very skeptical of conspiracies which require vast numbers of unrelated people to coordinate in a nefarious enterprise. This includes patients (of all ages with a smooth statistical spread, mind you) who oblige by contracting pneumonias at exponentially growing rates.

      Be skeptical, is my advice, but evaluate your sources. And in the case of COVID, stock up and take what measures you deem fit. Pascal's wager applies, if nothing else. 8)

      Dave Z

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  3. Hi, Dave, thanks for your reply, its hard to communicate a lot of info and scrutinized insights with few words, haha, in this case I dont by J.R per se but many articles trigger comments (where allowed) and my experience is that among those comments one can sometimes find a bit of the pussle called life, agree with what you say about how to conduct tests, when you take part how Pasteur and Koch did their tests and got away with it, it contradicts everything you mentioned, the german virologist Stefan Lanka give me good vibes and explains to my knowledge that " viruses" is a result not the cause of disease, huh this is a challenge to comperhend like turpentine/kerosene therapy, if you are up to natural remedies look up Dr Daniels on turpentine.

    Here in Scandinavian Lapland we dont fear CV but the stupidity that is emerging, sorry to say our custom Paradox is not ready yet for TAZ adventures but it will be, if SHTF comes soon plan B is Mad River Legend, a Laavu, guerilla gardening, fishing and little hunting, berrywine is on the short list too, and most of all thank you for all that you shared so far, wish you and Anke all the best. Excuse my English by the way.

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    Replies
    1. Hi PM,

      Life's a puzzle, alright!

      Glad to hear you have a PARADOX in the making, and a solid plan B. Given your location, there's a good chance you can finish up even if things fall apart.

      Fair winds and best of luck!

      Dave Z

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