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| Ducking out of Trouble |
Check yourself before you wreck yourself.
-- Meg Cabot
Risk, Resources and the Risk Budget
I think often about risk and its management. Our own lives and those of others in SE Alaska - anywhere, really - bring a stream of reminders lest I forget.
Risk is a fundamental aspect of life, and no amount of preparation brings it to zero. Hence, I write 'fail-safer' and 'saferty' to remind myself that safety is an ultimately unattainable goal however advisable its pursuit. I like to know my 'risk tolerance', on the one hand, but also keep in mind that mortal risk can and does reach past tolerance for those of us who brave the water. That awareness is both humbling and helps keep one alert.
Recently, I was introduced to a new-to-me framework for thinking about risk - the Risk Budget. The idea is that we have several 'stocks' (in system terms)... accumulations of resources which provide us with various margins of saferty. As we proceed in a risky endeavor, we draw these stocks down, reducing the total margin of saferty. When one or more of these stocks becomes critically depleted, our risk skyrockets. The outcome of cascading, catastrophic failure becomes ever more likely with each further withdrawal.
In terms of sailing, these stocks cover quite a range, and interact in suites.
Personal energy, hydration, and warmth directly support stamina and mental acuity. Vessel integrity, stability, gear and stores support ability to keep the sea. Stability, distance off, fall-back options and generally defensive sailing fend off extremity. Knowledge, experience and practice help make our options visible.
Thinking of our resources in terms of a budget reminds us that they are finite, and to spend them wisely.
But even with all these, time constraints, season and climate change may increase situational risk and rates of depletion. Age, infirmity and entropy lower our personal and material reserves.
What then to do? Make sure that...
- We are well fed, hydrated, clothed and rested.
- We have cultivated skills proportional to the risk.
- Our vessel is robust and ready.
- Stocks are ample, replenished, and rotated.
- We sail in open windows of time and opportunity.
- We sail defensively with plenty of margin and fall-back.
- We favor fail-safer solutions.
- We practice saferty-in-depth (redundancy).
- We Keep It Simple, Sailor!
And before we exhaust our reserves?
- Take immediate action to restore our margins of saferty.
- Head for shelter ahead of trouble when possible.
We can't eliminate risk and, as sailors, aren't really looking to. We accept the inherent risks of being on the water. But we can manage it.
We can hold ourselves prepared - as best we may - for the stitch-in -time.
Relevant Posts:
https://triloboats.blogspot.com/2012/01/risk-management.html
https://triloboats.blogspot.com/2012/01/rules-of-thumb.html
https://thingstolucat.com/2024/02/29/highly-likely-low-consequence-learning/
-- Excellent advice toward courting risk in pursuit of learning to handle it from Luc Mehl.